Naysayers
I like to keep things positive, but it looks like I’m a naysayer today. If you haven’t read Nursery Management‘s “State of the Industry Report,” it’s worth reading. Well, there’s actually not that much to read, but there’s a lot to look at, mostly info-graphics from a survey they did, with a little bit of editorial. Here’s how it starts:
There’s a lot to think about in those few paragraphs. First, the pressing question: is the plant business in crisis or is it only in a slight slump? Maybe 40% is a bit strong, but the “overall nursery market” is down at least 33%. I have no data to support that opinion. What does their data reflect?
Take a minute to look over these numbers and see if they fit with reality. 52% of growers say their sales have grown or remained the same? Ha! I just can’t trust these numbers, and the reason it’s a misleading graphic is because they asked the wrong question. “Over the past three years…” The economy and industry were already in a big mess 3 years ago. Perhaps respondents to this survey (and I was one) just confirmed that after the big crash in 2008 we’ve recovered slightly? Still, if you think that only 20% of growers have seen sales slide more than 20%, I have to be a naysayer. There’s probably only 20% of growers that that are on sound financial footing today and have been able to continue producing their crops on schedule. I guess that makes me a naysayer.
“If it ain’t got no bloom, we ain’t got no room.”
As the saying goes, what’s selling now has blooms. It appears that the industry en masse is heading for the same exit (lifeboat, yellow brick road, parachute, clown car, pick your analogy). We’re all dumping evergreen shrubs and shade trees and getting more into flowering shrubs and perennials.
What this graphic really reveals is which market we growers are aiming for…and increasingly the answer is the retail market.
While individually these are probably the right moves, it makes one wonder what the ramifications are if we all do the same thing. But the truth is that it’s not so much about deciding what you’ll grow anymore as it is about who you’ll grow for. We used to have the mentality, “grow it and they will come.” That’s a broken paradigm now. It’s not about picking the right plants to grow; it’s about picking the right customers to grow for. The paradigm isn’t “grow it and they will come,” it’s “go where the action is and find a way to be useful.”
Next on my to-do list for OpenHort: With the new paradigm in mind, I want to address the questions: Where is the action? What’s it look like? How do we growers make ourselves useful? Valuable? Hint: it all centers around the independent garden center green goods buyer.
Please, send me your thoughts! Thanks for reading, and big thanks to Nursery Management for doing the “State of the Industry Report.” Sorry I just ripped it apart!
~Art